Macro backdrop
The broadest forces — what's happening to global money supply, the business cycle, and the dollar.
Methodology
A compact framework for a noisy market.
Every MacroPulse note follows the same recipe: score eight indicators across three tiers, combine the read, and translate it into one of four cycle states. The inputs don't change to fit the conclusion. The discipline is the product.
What we track · eight indicators
Three tiers. Same eight indicators every day.
No single indicator decides the call. The framework combines them — and the combination determines whether conditions are improving, deteriorating, broadening, or rolling over. Click any indicator to read the full reference.
Rates & liquidity
The real cost of capital and how aggressively it's being injected or drained from the system.
Crypto-market structure
What positioning and capital flows inside crypto are telling us about appetite and crowdedness.
From readings to the call
Two steps. Eight readings combine into one cycle state.
Every day, each indicator is scored against its threshold and labelled with one of three statuses. The combined picture across all eight resolves to a single cycle state.
Step 1 · Each indicator is labelled
Supportive
The indicator's reading is on the tailwind side of its threshold.
Neutral
The indicator's reading is within its normal range.
Headwind
The indicator's reading is on the tightening side.
Step 2 · The four cycle states, in cycle order
Risk Off
Macro stress, tighter liquidity, stronger USD pressure, and a clear preference for defence.
BTC Accumulation
Improving macro conditions, BTC dominance firm or rising, selective leadership and measured risk-taking.
Alt Rotation
Broadening participation, healthier breadth, BTC dominance rolling over and more confident beta expansion.
Take Profit
Extended conditions, PMI strong, funding elevated. Asymmetry is weakening and risk management matters more.
See the current reading on the live dashboard.
The dial updates daily and reflects the same framework above, applied to today's data.
Process
How a MacroPulse issue gets built.
The week-by-week production process is deliberately straightforward so the final note is sharper, faster to read, and easier to act on.
Observe
Track the macro tape, liquidity backdrop, and changes in business-cycle momentum.
Score
Label each indicator supportive / neutral / headwind against its threshold.
Translate
Combine the eight labels into the prevailing cycle state.
Publish
Deliver a concise note with implications for BTC, alt exposure, and overall portfolio posture.