Global liquidity
Liquidity conditions shape how much oxygen is available for risk assets. MacroPulse tracks whether the backdrop is becoming more supportive or more restrictive for crypto exposure.
Methodology
A compact framework for a noisy market.
MacroPulse is built on a simple belief: crypto often responds to a recurring set of macro forces long before the market narrative catches up. We monitor a tight set of indicators, score them in context, and translate them into a practical regime view.
Core Inputs
Five pillars that drive the MacroPulse read.
No single indicator decides the call. MacroPulse combines these pillars to identify whether conditions are improving, deteriorating, broadening, or rolling over.
Rates
Rising rates and real-yield pressure can tighten financial conditions and compress speculative appetite. Easing or stabilising rates can change that tone quickly.
PMI and growth momentum
MacroPulse uses growth-sensitive indicators to judge whether the broader cycle is moving toward expansion, stalling, or slipping into a more defensive phase.
USD conditions
Dollar strength often acts as a tightening force across global markets. When the USD eases, risk appetite can broaden; when it firms, fragility can reappear fast.
Fed balance sheet
Central-bank balance-sheet direction does not tell the whole story, but it matters. MacroPulse incorporates it as part of a wider liquidity and policy lens rather than a standalone headline.
From inputs to action
The output is not a prediction engine. It is a disciplined way to interpret whether BTC leadership, broader alt participation, profit-taking, or capital preservation deserves more weight.
Process
How a MacroPulse issue gets built.
The process is deliberately straightforward so the final note is sharper, faster to read, and easier to act on.
Observe
Track the macro tape, liquidity backdrop, and changes in business-cycle momentum.
Score
Assess whether conditions are improving, deteriorating, broadening, or becoming more fragile.
Translate
Convert the macro read into a market-state lens through the MacroPulse Cycle Indicator.
Publish
Deliver a concise note with implications for BTC, alt exposure, and overall portfolio posture.
MacroPulse Cycle Indicator
A regime language, not a trading gimmick.
The Cycle Indicator helps readers think in states rather than headlines. Each state reflects a different balance of macro support, breadth, risk appetite, and defensive pressure.
- BTC Accumulation: improving macro conditions with selective leadership and measured risk-taking.
- Alt Rotation: broadening participation, healthier breadth, and more confident beta expansion.
- Take Profit: extended conditions where asymmetry is weakening and risk management matters more.
- Risk Off: macro stress, tighter liquidity, stronger USD pressure, and a preference for defence.
What This Means
MacroPulse aims to improve process, not promise outcomes.
Research is published for educational purposes and to support a more disciplined macro framework. Crypto assets remain highly volatile, and no indicator set can eliminate uncertainty.
Cycle-aware
Process-led
Research only