The eight indicators, in plain English.

M2 is the single most important macro tide. When the global money stock is expanding, oxygen is reaching risk assets; when it contracts, the air thins. Crypto, as the most liquidity-sensitive asset class on a multi-year basis, tends to follow this measure more closely than any other.

MacroPulse watches the year-on-year growth rate and the 13-week direction, not the absolute level. A 4-week trend up while major central banks are easing is treated as decisively supportive.

PMI tracks where the business cycle is in real time. Crypto rallies tend to coincide with PMI bottoming and turning up; corrections often follow PMI peaking above 60 (the classic late-cycle overheating reading). It's a leading indicator with practical sensitivity.

MacroPulse treats sustained moves above 50 as a confidence input to BTC accumulation, and PMI readings approaching 60 as the flag that closes a cycle — the "Take Profit" trigger.

The dollar is the global tightening channel. A rising DXY drains liquidity from non-dollar economies and risk assets simultaneously — including crypto, commodities, and emerging markets. A falling DXY does the reverse, easing financial conditions everywhere at once.

MacroPulse scores the DXY against absolute thresholds rather than relative direction. A reading below 97.5 indicates a meaningfully weak dollar — supportive of crypto and broader risk. A reading above 100 marks a strong-dollar regime — a structural headwind. The 97.5–100 band sits between the two and scores neutral: the dollar is neither pushing risk forward nor pulling it back.

Real yields are the gravity that pulls capital toward and away from risk assets. When real yields are high, the risk-free option is genuinely attractive and capital prefers it; when they're low or negative, capital is pushed out the risk curve toward equities, credit, and crypto.

MacroPulse references the 10-year TIPS yield directly (FRED's DFII10), which prices real yields without needing a separate CPI subtraction.

A persistent inversion (negative 2s10s) historically precedes US recessions by 12-24 months. Re-steepening — moving back from inversion toward positive — is the textbook signal that growth expectations are improving and the early part of the next cycle is forming.

MacroPulse watches both the sign and the rate of change. A steepening curve with rising PMI is the strongest macro setup the framework recognises.

Direct measure of US dollar liquidity. Expansion injects reserves into the banking system, easing conditions globally. Contraction does the reverse. The pace matters as much as the direction — aggressive QT is a meaningful drag; well-telegraphed slow QT is mostly priced.

MacroPulse tracks the FRED weekly H.4.1 release. Transitions from QT to neutral or QE are regime-level events.

Positive funding = longs paying shorts = bullish positioning bias. Negative funding = shorts paying longs = bearish bias, often a contrarian-bullish signal for spot when extended. Elevated positive funding is the classic late-cycle warning — crowded longs paying for the privilege.

MacroPulse reads negative-or-near-zero funding as "clean positioning" and persistent positive readings above ~0.04% as crowded.

A rising share of capital in stables means crypto holders are moving to cash — defensive positioning. A falling share means capital is rotating from stables into risk assets — offensive positioning. Direction often leads price moves by days to weeks.

MacroPulse watches the 30-day direction. Stables draining out is a tailwind; capital piling into stables is a quiet warning sign.